TSP Talk Blog

The bulls took charge early on Thursday, after a slightly weak open. By the close the Dow had added 69-points with the three major indices all gaining near 0.3%. The Transports led with a 0.8% gain while the small caps added 0.5%, and the I-fund was held back by another rally in the dollar.

Daily TSP Funds Return More returns

The financials and oil stocks led again and that helped the large cap indices. The price of oil rallied for a third straight day and it sets up a situation where, if the correction in oil is going to continue, this rebound could be ready to fail. However, if we get another push higher in crude, we may be seeing a bottom forming. As we head toward the warmer months, oil does tend to get more of a bid as demand increases.




March has been a choppy month after peaking on March 1. Now we head into April next week and it is not a bad month as far as seasonality goes. It is the last month in the stronger six month period (Nov. - Apr.) for stocks. April 1st has a very strong historical record, but this year it falls on a Saturday. Sorry bulls.


Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com


The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) rallied in the morning right up to the descending resistance line (blue) and paused, but it is not uncommon for resistance to hold the first time it is tested. The pullback held convincingly above the 50-day EMA during the March pullback, and now it has closed above the 20-day EMA for three straight days.




The DWCPF (S-fund) poked its head above its descending resistance line after a strong day. Above the 50 and 20-day EMA's the chart is looking good, but it wouldn't take much of a dip to push it back below that resistance line so it's a little too early to celebrate.




The Dow Transportation Index has enjoyed the rally in oil this week but now faces some stiff resistance near 9150. It could be make or break for the Transports and whichever way it goes from here could set the tone for the rest of the market.




The EFA (I-fund) has an interesting day and I'm not sure what happened at that 65.36 level. It may end up being a bad tick that is corrected. Otherwise someone paid a little too much for EFA yesterday because it actually closed down on the day after another rally in the dollar.




The dollar was up 0.66% yesterday and that's a lot of pressure for the overseas markets.




The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) pulled back again from the overhead resistance. It's still hanging around the 200-day EMA so it may be forming a bull flag, but that resistance line is the key right now.




Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.