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Retail, oil up. Financials down

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Stocks were mixed on Wednesday with the Dow down 42-points as financials were a bit of a drag on the large caps. The S&P, Nasdaq, and small caps all posted small to moderate gains. Retail stocks did well and on the NYSE there were close to 2 stocks up for every one down so the loss in the Dow wasn't telling the story.

Daily TSP Funds Return

The Dow has now been down 9 of the last 10 days but the losses have been quite muted. In fact since 1900 it's the smallest loss in such a stretch. In prior instances like this the returns going forward weren't that impressive in the Dow so we have a bit of a warning here despite some improving charts.

I wanted to follow up on yesterday's commentary where I pointed out that the Consumer Confidence Survey hit a reading that we hadn't seen since December of 2000, where stocks proceeded to correct sharply. If I would have looked a little further I would have seen that information was misleading.

Yes, the last time we saw the reading we had this week was just before a major decline, but it had been at or above that reading for several years before the market finally gave way.


Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com


Of course that rally ended up being the bubble of a lifetime so we may not see stocks rise for 4 years like it did from 1997 to the end of 2000, but what I said was misleading because the last two times we saw the market hit that number for the first time, stocks actually did well going forward.

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) moved up slightly after a down opening that tested and held the 20-day EMA. Not too bad. The descending resistance overhead is the concern now.




The DWCPF (S-fund) had a solid day gaining 0.32% and it is back above the 20 and 50-day EMA's. It is in a short-term descending trading channel now and the top of that channel is the next challenge.




The EFA (I-fund) closed flat leaving it at a multi-year closing high.




The dollar moved up early to fill that second gap yesterday. It did open another small gap below. This is a negative trend for the dollar but there is a lot of room above within that large channel so it has room to run either way.




The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) bounced back from Tuesday's loss but it remains below some key resistance and at the top of a large channel.




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Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.


Tom Crowley


Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php


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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes