TSP Talk Blog

Stocks rallied Thursday after some positive comments from President Trump regarding taxes. The Dow jumped 118-points and we saw gains of near 0.60% in the top three major indices. Small caps led the way as it tends to exaggerate the move of the SP 500, whether that's up or down, and yesterday was up.

Daily TSP Funds Return More returns

The dollar bounced bounced back yesterday and that put some pressure on the I-fund relative to U.S. stocks.

If you like specifics, you didn't get it, but investors were not going to hold back after a comment from President Trump saying they will be, "Announcing something over the next two or three weeks that will be phenomenal in terms of taxes."

As we had been saying, this market is looking for a catalyst and with the lack of anything solid as far as the Fed, earnings, and the economic data go, they are listening to what the new administration is saying - and so far they like what they are hearing, but of course nothing has been done yet. So we will watch in "two or three weeks" and see if we get something phenomenal.
I don't doubt that they will try. It's whether or not congress will get onboard as the democrats seem to be on a mission to stop Trump anyway they can, so we'll wait and see.


The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) made a new all-time high, but as you can see it is now testing the top of its two-month trading channel. So we have some good news / bad news here but clearly the bulls are still running the show. Let's see if the bears are willing to sell here at resistance or if the bulls will put it into another gear.




The DWCPF (S-fund) moved above that key 1180 mark yesterday and is approaching its longer-term resistance line. There's not much to dislike here except that it might be due for a short-term pause if it hits the top of the channel.




The Dow Transportation Index is in an interesting situation. It has lagged a bit lately as it is still about 170-points from its recent high after the sharp pullback that started in late January. It has bounced back some but it is starting to look like a bear flag. For the most part it looks good -- unless that bear flag decides to breakdown.




The EFA (I-fund) was up some but the dollar is finding some life again. That could mean that it is time for those in the I-fund to consider some profit taking, or move over to the U.S. funds.




If the UUP (dollar ETF) can get back above the 50-day EMA the I-fund may start to lag like in 2016, and small caps theoretically should outperform the large caps of the C-fund. If the dollar pulls back again from here, all that I just said would be moot.




The AGG (bonds / F-fund) was down and it backed off from the 200-day EMA. That's not all surprising on the first test, but we could arguably say it failed here in January as well.




Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend!

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.