TSP Talk Blog

Stocks were mixed but mostly flat again yesterday after a weak open, but some buying kicked in as the day progressed. The Dow ended the day down 36-points while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq pushed into positive territory. Small caps were also flat and the dollar pulled back helping the I-fund close with a gain.

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Yesterday I mentioned an inventory report that sent the price of oil below the 50-day EMA and some rising support. It didn't take long for it to find some buyers as it ended the day with a solid gain back above $52. But it is still below several layers of support and if the dollar can stabilize, and it is near long term support, oil may stay under some pressure.




The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) was slightly positive yesterday after spending much of the day in negative territory so it was a nice little reversal day. The bears have been given opportunity after opportunity to push this lower but they have been unable to do any damage at all. There is still a small portion of that gap left open that could want to get filled on the downside, but otherwise it has remained above all support levels.




The DWCPF (S-fund) was flat after a brief break below the 20-day EMA yesterday. Now it needs to try to push back above that important 1800 level that has been a stubborn resistance area for a couple of months.




The EFA (I-fund) was up modestly yesterday, holding above the September highs after falling below the rising wedge pattern. The dollar may be looking to stabilize after coming down to some longer-term support levels and that could prove troublesome to the I-fund should that support in the dollar hold. But there are a couple other issues that could pester the I-fund.




I've talked about Japan's recent battle with the 50-day EMA as it is flirting with a new downtrend, but so far it has been able to hold. I'm keeping an eye on this, but there's another possible problem overseas...




Greece is in the headlines again as its debt situation gets "explosive" as this article explains...

EU faces crisis as IMF warns Greek debts are on ‘explosive’ path

The Athens chart looks precarious despite a nice reversal back above the 200-day EMA yesterday. These "h" formations don't tend to end well.




The AGG (bonds / F-fund) continues to surprise many by rallying up to the 200-day EMA again yesterday. In a bear market we wouldn't expect this to get too far above it, but that large open gap after the election is still looming above 110.




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Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow!

Tom Crowley


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