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Day two of 2017 rally

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Stocks rallied again on Wednesday getting 2017 off to a very good start. The Dow gained 60-points while the S&P 500 performed slightly better, the Nasdaq outdid them, and small caps piled on even more. The I-fund's negative price on Tuesday meant Wednesday's price was likely going to be very good and as you can see, the I-funders were not disappointed. That's fair value adjustments for you.

Daily TSP Funds Return


The bulls have grabbed momentum back and the New Year is off to a big start. The move is not an unusual occurrence during the first couple of days in January. The first week can be explosive, although not always to the upside, but average-wise, yes. The first week of January has a positive bias, but after that the historical seasonal positive bias goes away for a week or so.


Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com


Administrative notes: RevShark's Annual Premium Service, TSP Timing, is on sale this week for 33% off the regular price. For more information about the RevShark and the sale, please go to... www.tsptalk.com/revshark_sale.php.

For those interested in some of our contests we have, the "2017 Guess the Dow" contest is going on now in the Forum and the deadline for an entry is Friday at 4 PM ET. Forum member Frixxx won the 2016 contest with a guess of 19,841. The Dow ended the year at 19,763. Pretty close! More info


The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) has now bounced to the top of its bull flag formation - temporarily breaking out but it closed just below the resistance. I like that it pulled back to the 20-day EMA and held. I like that it's in a bull flag. I also like that small caps are performing well. But the Transports are not and there are other signs of concern so it's never an easy call.




The DWCPF (S-fund) did breakout above its bull flag (red) and will now deal with the old high today. Should that resistance break and the typical target of a bull flag breakout play out, we could be looking at a possible move above 1220.




The Dow Transportation Index had a nice gain on Wednesday but it remains in a funky flag formation, which is starting to look less and less like a flag. It's a narrow range so we should know if it is going to breakout or not rather quickly.




The EFA (I-fund) had a big day and is now poking its head above a cup and handle formation, which is a good sign. The overhead open gap is likely an upside likely target and then we'll deal with a possible breakout above the September highs.




The AGG (bonds / F-fund) was up slightly yesterday and because of the low price we saw in the F-fund on Tuesday, Wednesday's price was adjusted to get it back to where it is supposed to be.




Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.


Tom Crowley


Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes