TSP Talk Blog

New years tend get off to a wild start and 2017 was no exception. We saw it all... A big gap up with a continued surge in the indices in very early trading. The Dow was up about 175-points within 30 minutes or so. By noon ET almost all of those gains were gone. It wasn't looking good but the selling dried up by the last 90-minutes of trading and we saw the indices rebound to close somewhere in between but close with solid gains.

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The share prices that the TSP used for the F and I-funds look a little off to me, but whenever there is a lot of movement late in the trading day and can impact the price, or I should say not impact the price until the following day.

Here's a closer look at the intraday action in the S&P 500. A strong open and a strong close tends to create a positive reversal day but because the indices closed well off the highs, the technical advantage is somewhat muted.




The Dow Transportation Index actually closed with a modest loss on the day. Not a lot of bullish confirmation.

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For those interested in some of our contests we have, the "2017 Guess the Dow" contest is going on now in the Forum and the deadline for an entry is Friday at 4 PM ET. Forum member Frixxx won the 2016 contest with a guess of 19,841. The Dow ended the year at 19,763. Pretty close! More info


The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) posted some solid gains, +0.72%. The volatile action doesn't give us a warm fuzzy feeling but it's back above the 20-day EMA and remains in what looks to me like a bull flag.




The DWCPF (S-fund) also traded within its bull flag formation so no breakouts or breakdowns yet.




The Dow Transportation Index is struggling and is a concern for the rest of the market. It looks like a bullish flag but the sloping flag is getting a little long here. Yes, the flag pole goes from 8000 to 9500 so perhaps the flag is OK, but the bulls better make their move or this will look more like a top.




The EFA (I-fund) had a nice day and the remains above its bear flag. Not normally a bullish formation but for some reason - probably because of Friday's decline in the dollar - it broke to the upside, which is not typical.




The China large cap ETF has bounced nicely off the support line for the last week but it is now testing the 200-day EMA, which held on Tuesday. Sure it could move up to test the top of the trading channel again, but it is a declining channel. I know money managers are watching this one for any potential problems, but there was actually some strong economic data reported out of China on Monday night.




The AGG (bonds / F-fund) had another nice day despite opening down on the day. That created a positive reversal day and it looks like the 50-day EMA may get tested.




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Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


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