TSP Talk Blog

Stocks opened sharply higher on Wednesday after the OPEC announcement that Saudi Arabia will cut back on their oil production and that sent the price of oil and energy stocks higher. The Dow benefited most and was up over 100-pooints early on, but the gains faded throughout the day and the Dow closed with a small gain of just 2-points. The results were mixed as the Nasdaq 100 took a bad hit losing over 1%, while the Transports had a solid day gaining 0.43%, and S&P and small caps saw just modest losses.

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The November jobs report is being released this Friday morning and estimates are looking for a gain of 180,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to remain 4.9%.

Administrative Note: I am offering a discount on annual subscriptions to the TSP TALK Plus Premium Service during the first week in December. Whether you are already a subscriber or not, you can add a year at a 33% discount to our normal annual subscription price. (This discount does not apply to those already getting the 50% multi-service discount, but you can add an additional year to lock in that 50% for another year.)

The Plus service had a very solid year in 2015 in both the TSP and ETF systems, but 2016 has not been quite as kind with our 7.3% return so far. Not bad, but we should do better when stocks are doing this well.

For that reason I am offering a discount to hopefully keep your support for another year. It would be very unusual for the systems to have consecutive "blah" years and I know we can do better. Anyway, if you have any interest in adding a year at a discounted rate, please go here for more information...

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Back to business; the price of oil skyrocketed over 9% yesterday on the OPEC production cut deal. Was this an emotional move or is this a real catalyst for higher prices? I think it could be the latter. When supply does get cut and demand remains the same, that means higher prices. The energy stocks of the Dow were the beneficiaries of this deal.




The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) posted a big black bar which means it closed much lower than it opened. The chart broke down from the rising channel on Tuesday, and yesterday the bottom of that channel held as resistance. It's rising resistance but the weak close makes it less likely that the resistance line will be tested again today.




The DWCPF (small caps / S-fund) slipped 0.26% yesterday after Tuesday's break from the channel. The question now is whether this thing is rolling over or just pulling back a bit in a bull flag formation?




The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) had a bad day yesterday as big tech continues to lag since the election. It could be that this is an inverted head and shoulder formation which would mean the downside could be limited while it forms a right shoulder. If that's the case this may be a bullish development after perhaps some short-term consolidation. The key is how deep the right shoulder goes.




The EFA (I-fund) looks to be creating a bear flag and the 50-day EMA is now officially below the 200-day EMA. It looks bearish but fairly oversold so a push up to the EMA's wouldn't be out of the question..




The AGG (bonds / F-fund) fell from what looks like a bear flag and should be looking to test the prior low soon. Bear flags tend fall below the prior lows so we'll see if bond traders and investors are willing to buy this at 108 again.




Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


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