TSP Talk Blog

On queue, stocks pulled back modestly after the pre-Thanksgiving weekend rally. A little profit taking is typical this time of year after what felt like an exaggerated post-election rally, which followed the exaggerated pre-election sell-off. The Dow ended the day down 54-points while we saw slightly larger declines percentage-wise in the broader indices.

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The S-fund, which led the way higher in November, was hit the hardest yesterday while the I-fund continues to struggle below key resistance.


The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) pulled back and filled a small open gap created on Friday morning. There's not much to interpret here except maybe to say that the steep short-term support line seems to have broken. We'll see in the coming days if it's anything more than that.




The DWCPF (small caps / S-fund) lost just over 1% on the day which was nearly the total of the prior three days of gains.




The EFA (I-fund) remains below the descending resistance line and the 50-day EMA is about to cross below the 200-day EMA. Not exactly bull market activity.




The December seasonality chart shows the difference between the two halves of the month, with the latter half of the month basically the strongest two-week period of the year.




The AGG (bonds / F-fund) finally had a good day and it's been long overdue. One open gap was filled but there are two gaps that are still open. I suspect the one near 109.25 is a potential "dead cat bounce" target.




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Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


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