TSP Talk Blog

Stocks bounced around quite a bit on Thursday, although the range was on the tight side, but we see that's there's a lot of indecision out there. The Dow ended the day down 40-points with minimal to modest losses across the board.

After the close Microsoft posted a big earnings report and in after hours trading it moved up to a level not seen since 1999. The Nasdaq futures jumped in sympathy because of its exposure to tech stocks, but the S&P futures were not impacted as much.

Daily TSP Funds Return More returns

I do some day trading and I have to admit that I will probably take some time off because of the conflicting information I am seeing. This is about as uncertain and the data as inconsistent as I have seen in the charts and indicators, giving no real good idea about the direction for the coming days.


The SPY (S&P 500 / C-Fund) has moved little over the last few days and that has been enough to create a bear flag which is having a tough time recapturing the 50-day EMA. That's 8 days below the 50-EMA and that is a clear red flag. The prior bear flag in September was also below the 50-day EMA for more than 5 days, and surprisingly it broke to the upside - not too common. The problem then was, after a two-day rally, the S&P 500 stalled again.




The DWCF (S-fund) is also in a bear flag and below the 50-day EMA. If and until this breaks above the flag and EMA, I have to look at it with some caution.




This chart from sentimentrader.com shows what the S&P 500 did during the 20 days before and after Election Day since 1950, with the dark line being the average return. I have shown another Election Day chart many times that was much more bullish but it went back to 1900 and this one that goes only to 1950 isn't as bullish as that one was.


Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com


The EFA (I-fund) is still flirting with the 50-day EMA and actually closes a couple of ticks above. That's a good sign but not a definitive indication of anything yet.




The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) was up early but closed lower. This chart has been a little confusing as well, so I added the chart of the 10-year Treasury yield below it, which moves counter to bond prices.




The yield has a more recognizable bull flag pattern as it tries to hold above the 200-day EMA after breaking above it earlier this month. This chart looks like it wants to break to the upside, which would be bearish for the AGG, bond prices, and the F-fund.


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Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend!

Tom Crowley


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