TSP Talk Blog

Stocks were mixed on Wednesday as the Dow, S&P, and small caps posted small gains, while the I-fund, Nasdaq, and Transportation Index closed with losses. It was a slow day on light volume so there's not much new to report. The Dow gained 16-points.

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The Fed Meeting minutes were released and some Fed members are concerned that waiting to raise rates will mean they will have to raise rates faster once they do, in order to control potential runaway inflation. And they conflated that with a cause for recessionary concerns, so they are sure in a tough spot. The market seemed to take it with trepidation and we saw stocks come off their intraday highs after the minutes were released.


The SPY (S&P 500 / C-Fund) held above Tuesday's low but didn't get much of a relief rally. It may be a case of it basing like it did in September after that large one-day decline. The September lows really need to hold or we may be turning from a rising trend, to a descending trend. We're already seeing a possible large rounded top forming.




No chart today for the small caps because there was no reportable action yesterday. It was basically flat.

The EFA (I-fund) was down slightly as the dollar was up again yesterday. The 200-day EMA is still holding, and that's fairly important.




The price of oil slipped for a second day after hitting a double top on Monday. We have speculated that oil could trade within a range between $40 to $50 for a while and now that it moved over $51 it seems to have found resistance. $49 could provide some support and if that holds then clearly the range may break and we could change our opinion on it being a new rising trend instead of a trading range. How the market will react to that will be interesting. As we've said before, the $40 to $50 range seemed comfortable for stocks.




The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) was up slightly, rallying from some early losses yesterday. The positive reversal near a double bottom could help give bonds a small rally in the short-term.




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Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


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