TSP Talk Blog

Stocks opened sharply lower on Thursday with the Dow tagged with an early 120-point loss, but we saw a strong push back from the bulls and the indices all closed at or near the break-even level as the Dow ended with a 13-point decline.

To our friends in the southeast, please stay safe! This Matthew character looks pretty mean.

Daily TSP Funds Return More returns

As we've talked about before, Central Banks have come to the rescue of stocks time and again. We mentioned this is regard to Deutsche Bank's problems the other day. Well yesterday it was a VP of the ECB that sparked the 11 AM rally on Thursday. This is something RevShark wrote on his website describing the action.

"Vitor Consancio of Portugal, who is the Vice President of the European Central Bank, denied rumors that the central bank was likely to taper off its bond buying in anticipation of the end of the program. He added that stimulus would continue until inflation starts to approach the targets set by the ECB."

The September Jobs Report comes out this morning (Friday) and the consensus estimates are looking for a gain of about 176,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.9%. The September Jobs Report Contest winners will be announced in the forum. Click here for more info.

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-Fund) squeezed into the apex of the pennant formation for another day as investors await the jobs report which should trigger some kind of breakout from the formation. The 50-day EMA held again and the last 3 times it fell below that EMA intraday, it managed to close above it.




The DWCPF (small caps) remains in its bull flag formation apparently waiting for a catalyst, which may be provided by the jobs report today. It remains above the 50-day EMA and has for the last 3 weeks.




The EFA (I-fund) has been quiet lately but yesterday a pop in the dollar held it back and it is now testing some interesting support going back to the Brexit sell-off lows.




The price of oil closed above $50 a barrel for the first time since June. The higher high creates a new rising trading channel, but some markets trend and other oscillate and this one seems to be oscillating between the $40 and $50 range. If it can get to about $55 we may talk about a new trend,




The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) was flat as it tries to hold near the bottom of its recent trading range.




The TSP is close on Monday. Per tsp.gov: Some financial markets will be closed on Monday, October 10th in observance of the Columbus Day holiday. The Thrift Savings Plan will also be closed. Transactions that would have been processed Monday night (October 10th) will be processed Tuesday night (October 11th), at Tuesday's closing share prices.

Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading. Have a great holiday weekend! The market is open but the TSP is closed so we'll take the day off.

Tom Crowley


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