TSP Talk Blog

It was a lighter volume, late summer doldrums kind of trading day yesterday after some fireworks late last week. Investors are generally still investing while traders tend to take some time off this part of the year, so we get some dull action and that tends to favor the bulls. That's not always the case as we saw last year so it depends on the situation from year to year.

The Dow gained 108-points and most of the major indices added a half of a percent or more on the day.

Daily TSP Funds Return More returns

The action "should" be quiet between now and the jobs report although the market may be a little more sensitive to some of the less watched economic data this week, and until the FOMC meeting in September.

The August Jobs Report comes out on Friday morning and the consensus estimates are looking for a gain of about 175,000 to 190,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.8%. The August Jobs Report Contest is now open in the forum. Click here for more info.

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-Fund) added 0.49% yesterday which, given the very slow action over the last several weeks, was a pretty bold move. The rising trading channel looks fairly solid although when these types of flags end, they can be rough. The question is, will it be the jobs report that ends it, or can this flag continue higher or even break to the upside?




Seasonality weakens in September, and unlike June, July, and August, the positive election year seasonality average doesn't help out in September.


Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com


The DWCPF (S-Fund) also remains in a strong rising channel after leading in yesterday's rally.




The EFA (I-fund) lagged and the dollar opened higher hurting some of the international markets but the greenback pulled back during the day and that may mean some help for today's I-fund price.




The dollar spiked on Friday after the speech from Yellen and other Fed remarks. This puts some pressure on the I-fund.




The High Yield Corporate Bond funds had a good day yesterday and actually closed at a new high. No worries here, which could be a good sign for stocks going forward.




The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) has been stuck in this flag since the big rally in June. The jobs report and the September FOMC meeting are clearly going to be the focus for this market in September.




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Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


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