TSP Talk Blog

Stocks opened sharply lower on Friday but climbed back and the losses were muted. The Dow lost 45-points while the S&P 500 and small caps saw more minor losses of 0.13% and 0.06% respectively. The I-fund lagged because of a rally in the dollar.

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I am taking a few more days off this week and will be making commentaries brief, and fortunately for me, the market has cooperated by remaining in a tight range with low volatility... so far.

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-Fund) dipped down early on Friday but again the 20-day EMA and the July highs held as some support. It's been 5-weeks or so since the big Brexit sell-off / reversal and the market seems to still be digesting that move. At some point this will either fail or it will make a move toward a new leg higher but so far during the slow days of August the bulls and bears have been going at it like two boxers that don't have knock-out power. The bobbing and weaving and measuring jabs will continue until one of them can sneak in a good blow to change the fight.



The weekly chart looks fine and the initial inverted head and shoulders breakout target of 2200-2250 is getting closer.




The dollar has been plummeting lately but it was up solidly on Friday and that put pressure on the I fund.




The price of oil was up yet again on Friday and it it now actually flirting with the previous highs after falling sharply for two months earlier this summer. Technically this chart is greatly improved and the question is why is oil rallying. Strong economic growth helps the price, as does lower supplies, and obviously the stock market would prefer that it was rising because of a pick up in the economy. But it could also be speculators who are looking for some volatility to trade while stocks remain quiet.




Bonds remain in a tight flag formation that looks like it may be getting ready to make a move.

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Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


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