TSP Talk Blog

Stocks opened lower on Tuesday, tried to push back, but for the first time in a while closed at the lows of the day. This is a bit of a change in character for the market but the test is going to be quick with support just below the current levels, and dip buyers getting what they have been waiting for. Although a 0.5% pullback may not be much to get them excited about yet, they have not been given many opportunities. The Dow was down 84-points.

Daily TSP Funds Return More returns

Some comments from the Fed gave investors some concern about a possible rate hike in September with one Fed saying the U.S. economy is likely strong enough for at least one rate increase before the end of 2016, with two a possibility. I could be wrong, but I still say nothing will be done until after the election. They don't want to hurt the market which could impact the election.

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-Fund) pulled back from Monday's all-time high creating a concern that it was a false breakout. There is decent support in the 217 area where two support lines meet with the 20-day EMA and an open gap. If the dip buyers are still waiting, they may not wait too long with this setup.




The DWCPF (S-fund) lagged on Tuesday and fell back to the bottom of the flag formation. Should the flag hold the pullback will be a brief one, but of course if it doesn't, support is rather thin below on this chart.




The Dow Transportation Index held up rather well yesterday despite the losses in the other major indices. This could still be a big bull flag, and as we pointed out yesterday, there are two inverted head and shoulders patterns formed, one inside the other, and they tend to break to the upside.




The EFA (I-fund) held up well with the dollar falling sharply. The 59 area looks to be an important juncture. A fall below that and we could see that gap try to get filled near 58.




The dollar was down sharply and the trend is now strongly negative. One gap was filled yesterday (blue) while another was opened and there is still a large open gap down at 24.30 from the post Brexit reaction.




The price of oil loves a weak dollar so it rallied yet again off the "V" bottom. The strength in oil didn't appear to help the Dow and S&P but perhaps it held stocks higher than they may have fallen. It's hard to say.




The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) remains in the flag and clings to the 20-day EMA. This one hasn't done much lately and is probably not a good speculative play until a direction is determined. This is a bullish looking flag so the upside probably has an advantage, but it could remain in the flag for longer than we can stand waiting.




Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.