TSP Talk Blog

Stocks were mixed but mostly higher on Thursday as the Dow shed 16-points while the S&P 500 and small caps saw small gains. The Nasdaq has been leading as tech earnings have been coming in better than expected.

After the bell last night Amazon and Alphabet (Google) pushed the Nasdaq futures higher again with solid earnings.

Daily TSP Funds Return More returns

The S&P 500 made it 11 days in a row with alternating gains and losses.

The price of oil was down again and has now fallen more than $10 from its recent highs. That is putting a drag on the Dow and could be signaling some economic weakness, although that is not necessarily the case.

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-Fund) looks poised for a bigger move and often we see a new month start with a big move so it will be interesting to see which way this one goes early next week. There is reason to believe the breakout will be to the upside because of the bullish flag formation, but we still have some severely overbought indicators that make it tough to believe the upside has that much left in it. Seasonality will be on the bulls' side this August, being an election year.




The DWCPF (S-fund) remains in a slow rising F-flag formation and who knows how long this could last? We've seen them last for several weeks, but when they do breakdown it can be sharp so it's not something to set and forget. This flag is going on 3 weeks long.




The Dow Transportation Index fell sharply early on Thursday but that strong area of support that we have been watching seems to have held decisively and a positive reversal day was created.




The EFA (I-fund) has been trading in a tight range like the U.S. indices and that 57.50 area looks like a key area that it needs to take out.




The price of oil has been moving steadily lower since it fell below the 200-day EMA last Friday. This is a clearly troubled chart but what it will mean for stocks remains to be seen. So far stocks have held up well, although the Dow has been feeling some of the effects lately.




The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) remains in what looks like a bear flag, although it is getting a little long. This looks like a bearish formation but right now the bond market does not seem to believe that rates are going higher any time soon.




Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend!

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.