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TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

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After the huge post-Brexit rally, stocks have been consolidating for several days but the bears have not been able to do much damage when they've had their chance, and the S&P 500 actually ended the week with a new closing high. If you read our Daily Commentary, you know that we believe that there are enough investors out there who do not have a sufficient exposure to stocks and that creates an atmosphere of a race to buy the dips, and that has kept any pullback very brief and shallow. There has not been two consecutive down days since the Brexit lows.




Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending July 22:





The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) has been basing and now it looks more like an "F" flag, which don't tend to breakout sharply to the upside like a bull flag (although they could) but rather tend to slowly move higher making it tough to get in if you are looking for weakness to buy. The F flags do tend to end with a thud because support becomes fewer and far between, but the rising trend could go on for days or weeks before it happens.




The DWCPF (S-fund) has been outperforming in July and is now just 0.20% behind the C-fund for the year, which was a nice comeback. Lower interest rates benefit small companies more because they rely on debt more than their large cap counterparts, and a lower interest payment adds to their bottom line, and that cheap money helps them grow.




The EFA (I-fund) has lagged a bit because of strength in the dollar, but we have seen some solid comeback in many overseas markets recently. The bull flag looks promising, as does the fact that it has been able to hold above the 200-day EMA, and the one day it fell below it was quickly reversed.




The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) has held up the last few days but there is some reason to be concerned about bonds this coming week. The old resistance line is back in the picture and we have a new bear flag on the chart that may mean it could fill some of the open gaps below.




Good luck and thanks for reading! We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at TSP Talk - Market Commentary.If you need some help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our premium services can help.

Tom Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or are commendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes