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Brexit surveys calling the shots

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Stocks were down on Friday, unable to follow-through on Thursday's big positive reversal day. The losses were modest and the indices did finish off the lows, but investors seemed a little tentative to hold over the weekend, where more Brexit polling in Britain could influence the market this week. The Dow lost 58-points.

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The I-fund held onto some solid gains thanks to a big drop in the dollar on Friday.

The Transportation Index did follow through with some gains, which is important considering the precarious position that chart has been in.

Oil was up sharply, and that has been a good sign for the market in recent months. It rebounded off the 50-day EMA with authority on Friday.




The futures opened sharply higher (~ +1%) on Sunday evening as those new Brexit polls now show Britain is leaning toward staying part of the Euro, so for the next few days, the market will take its keys from these polls. Remember, the bookmaker's odds have been strongly favoring them staying and I have more faith in them than the polls.

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-Fund) pulled back some on Friday after Thursday's big reversal day. It did manage to hold the 50-day EMA and that recent low may turn out to be a big factor if the election year chart is going to continue to play out. There were significant lows in February, May, and possibly now June as the average of the historical election year chart may be indicating. If that can hold we could see some strength leading into late summer.




The weekly chart shows that the right shoulder of the large inverted head and shoulders still needed time to form after the prior week's failed breakout.




The DWCPF (S-fund) was down slightly on Friday as it continues to outperform the large stocks. It has held up better than the S&P 500 as far as being able to remain above the longer-term rising support line.





The Dow Transportation posted a solid follow-through day on Friday after Thursday's positive reversal. The trend seems to be down, but that was one big positive reversal last week - similar in size to the one last February.




The EFA (I-fund) had a big day on Friday thanks to the dollar. There is still a lot of work to be done here to improve the technical picture and fill those open gaps.




The dollar (UUP) fell again on Friday after Thursday's negative reversal. Once that big open gap was filled near 24.7 it has acted as resistance and fell back down. Those open gaps can be quite predictable.




The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) fell early but bounced back into the narrow trading channel that has been developing since the weak jobs report earlier in the month. It may have found some resistance at the top of a larger rising channel.




Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

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DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

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BND (F Fund) (delayed)

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