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Holiday slowdown

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Stocks saw a light volume mixed to flat day on Thursday as the Dow lost 23-points, the S&P was flat, the Nasdaq was up a half dozen points, and small caps slipped about 0.2%. The holiday trading atmosphere is here and the historical bias leading up to the holiday is slightly positive.

Daily TSP Funds Return


Next week seasonality gets a little more negative as I showed yesterday, although during presidential election years, that's not typically the case. Things actually tend to perk up in late May and into June.



I'll mention again about the holiday reversal issue, where markets tend to move against the larger trend before a holiday, but resumes that trend after the holiday so there is some concern out there that this week's gains may be in jeopardy next week.

The S&P 500 (C-Fund) has rallied sharply after testing the 200-day EMA last week. It stalled on Thursday, which is not unhealthy after the big move, but there is resistance in the current area as the head and shoulders tests the middle of the head. A failure and a reversal here would be troublesome, but a few days of consolidation would be fine. The PMO indicator has crossed above the moving average.




The DWCPF (S-fund) is in a similar situation and, now that it has risen above them, the small caps will look to find support at the major moving averages if there is any pullback.




The Dow Transportation Index has rallied off the lows but now faces the important 200-day EMA. This is big for next week.




The EFA (I-fund) has closed above the 200-day EMA for a second day and the the question is whether this is one of those holiday reversal "false" moves.




The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) was up on Thursday but remains in a bear flag. The 50-day EMA continues to hold and may be the only hope for that bear flag.




Per www.tsp.gov: "Some financial markets will be closed on Monday, May 30th in observance of the Memorial Day holiday. The Thrift Savings Plan will also be closed. Transactions that would have been processed Monday night (May 30th) will be processed Tuesday night (May 31st), at Tuesday's closing share prices."


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T
hanks for reading. Have a great holiday weekend! Don't forget to remember those who sacrificed everything in the line of duty for us !



Tom Crowley


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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes