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Fed, Apple, and Facebook

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Stocks opened lower on Wednesday after some disappointing earnings reports after hours on Thursday, but the closer we got to the FOMC policy statement announcement, the more buyers jumped in knowing the Fed does not disappoint. And they apparently did not as the Dow jumped nearly 100-points after the announcement, finally settling the day up 51-points.

Daily TSP Funds Return

The Nasdaq did finish in the red after Apple's earnings, but after the bell on Wednesday Facebook reported a strong report and we saw a nice bounce in the futures.

I won't comment on the Fed's influence on stocks since we have gone over that many times, but Central Banks seem to be the only thing that really matters anymore. An example is happening overnight in Japan where the Bank of Japan left things as they were instead of adding stimulus, and the Nikkei Index is down over 550-points, or 3.2%.

Stocks ended with modest gains while bonds had a big day.

The S&P 500 (C-Fund) stayed within the resistance of the bottom of the large rising wedge and the lower side of the more short-term blue trading channel. The lines are drawn and investors and traders know where those lines are, and which they are willing to defend and which they are willing to let go remains to be seen.




The DWCPF (small caps / S-fund) has remained quite buoyant and continued to the very end of the apex of its wedge formation. Something has to give soon.




The price of oil broke above its rising wedge formation, something that goes against conventional wisdom, and unless this is a short-term fake out, this bullish move in oil looks to be for real. But it may all be about the weakness in the dollar, which hit an eight month low this month, so we'll have to keep an eye on that as well.




Monday will be the first trading day in May and there are some issues in May including the old "Sell in May and go away" axiom.

Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com


Is Sell in May and go away a legitimate concern? This chart says so.



And this intensive study from the Social Science Research Network agrees...

'Sell in May and Go Away' Just Won't Go Away by Sandro C. Andrade, Vidhi Chhaochharia, Michael E. Fuerst :: SSRN

Taking the other side of the argument is an article on fidelity.com, if you're interested:

Should you "Sell in May and go away"? - Probably not. But there are some interesting calendar trends and strategies to consider.


The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) has rebounded off the rising support line and may be on its way to test the recent highs again.




Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes