View RSS Feed

TSP Talk Blog

Post holiday reversal

Rate this Entry

Stocks did a "typical" post holiday reversal after last week's positive bias holiday rally. The Dow lost 79-points on the first day of a week filled with FOMC members making speeches, and we know how that can impact the market.

On Friday morning we get the November jobs report and estimates are looking for a gain of 196,000 jobs, and an unemployment rate of 5.0%. The Jobs Report Contest is now open in the forum. Click here

Daily TSP Funds Return

We saw losses of less than 0.5% but the selling was fairly broad. Oil was off slightly as that chart continues to deteriorate, which could be a problem for the stock market. The Dow Transports were down sharply.
Here are the final returns for November and the current annual returns for 2015.



The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) made its lowest close since the week prior to Thanksgiving week but it could possibly be making a small bull flag, which would be positive and likely take the SPY to the resistance line above. But first, there are concerns and there are some possible similarities to what we saw in July / August, which is why a new high is so important at this point.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The Dow Completion Index (small caps / S-fund) led last week but fell back from resistance on Monday and there's a lot of resistance in the 1060 area and all eyes are on that area now.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The Dow Transportation Index fell sharply on Monday, falling back below the 50-day EMA after flirting with, but failing at, the 200-day EMA last week.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The EFA (EAFE Index / I-Fund) has been quiet over the last several sessions. It is hanging onto the support of 50-day EMA and nearing the apex of a pennant formation.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The dollar has been moving steadily higher since the October lows, but it has created a bearish rising wedge formation and that large gap still needs to get filled. A pullback and test of the 50-ay EMA would take care of that.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The price of oil slipped again and there's not a whole lot of bullishness going on here. That $40 level is where a lot of folks are watching, with $38 being the line in the sand of support. A breakdown would likely not be very good for the stock market.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The percentage of indicators showing excessive pessimism is just 2%, while 28% are at an excessive optimism level. These are contrarian indicators that are leaning bearish for stocks.

The AGG (Bonds / F-Fund) continues to
test the resistance of the 50-day EMA and the old support line. It looks like something is going to have to give here.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

Submit "Post holiday reversal" to Digg Submit "Post holiday reversal" to del.icio.us Submit "Post holiday reversal" to StumbleUpon Submit "Post holiday reversal" to Google

Comments


S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes