TSP Talk Blog

Stocks were flat to moderately higher on Friday, similar to what we saw on Wednesday. The Dow lost 15-points on Friday, making the two-day loss - since our last commentary, 14-points. Pretty flat, but once again the small caps were out-performing.

I write my Monday commentaries on Sunday night and having traveled all Sunday, this will be my last quickie, and I will be on a normal schedule the rest of the week.

Daily TSP Funds Return More returns

Here's the 2-day returns of the stock and bond TSP funds.



The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) moved sideways most of last week, except for a brief sell-off early Tuesday after Turkey shot own a Russian jet. When I look at this chart I see several positive setups, but also some negative as well. While the recent action looks positive, the post holiday action tends to reverse the pre-holiday action. The key here would be for the SPY to close above the November and July highs. Once it closes above those highs for a few days, it would likely signal a new leg higher. However, failing here would be a big negative.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Dow Completion Index (small caps / S-fund) have been outperforming recently and it is back testing the 200-day EMA, closing just a few cents below it.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Dow Transportation Index is attempting to make last week's low a higher low after a higher high the prior week, which turned out to be failed breakout above the 200-day EMA. Sitting between the 50 and 200-day EMA now, it's tough to judge which way it wants to fly.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The price of oil was down sharply on Friday as it seems to be failing, for now, at the 20-day EMA. It looks like a bear flag, which tend to break down, so if stocks are still following oil, a breakdown in this chart could be concerning for the stock market.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.