TSP Talk Blog

Stocks were relatively flat on Thursday after Wednesday's rally. The Dow slipped 4-points so the Fed triggered rally was a one-day event. The question now is, if investors aren't adding to the rally, are they getting ready to sell?

This is an options expiration week and they do have a slightly positive bias over the years, while the week after the expiration has a slight negative bias, but next week is Thanksgiving week so there's the historical positive holiday bias going on there.

Speaking of Thanksgiving week, I will be busy next week so unless something significant happens, I will keep the commentary brief and enjoy some time off. I hope you are able to do the same. The market will be closed on Thursday and the TSP will be closed, and Friday will be a half day for the market, and the TSP will process transactions.

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The dollar pulled back yesterday giving the I-fund some juice while small caps lagged.

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) was flat as the post-Fed rally ran out of steam. New highs in the next few weeks would be a huge boost for the market technically, because until that happens, this recent push up to 211 will just make a lower high and the future direction becomes vulnerable. A new high and we'll have new support levels near 212, and probably a new bullish leg higher starting, but we have to get it first. With the holiday's positive seasonality right around the corner, there is a decent possibility, but an interest rate hike while economic data is struggling makes for game on in December.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Dow Completion Index (small caps / S-Fund) lagged and is stalling at that 1040 level which has been a tough nut to crack for months now.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Dow Transportation Index barely pushed above the 200-day EMA yesterday and closed right on it. A breakout here would be big as well, but can it do it this time?


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

This EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) had a good day thanks in part to weakness in the dollar. It has closed above the 50-day EMA for a second day but there is a small gap below that may look to get filled in the short-term.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The High Yield Bond funds fell sharply yesterday and since the stock market has a tendency to follow them, this is a little concerning.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The AGG (bonds / F-fund) was up slightly but it had a negative reversal day. It opened above the 50-day EMA and closed well below it and remains in a bear flag.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


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Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend!

Tom Crowley


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