View RSS Feed

TSP Talk Blog

Stocks and oil rebound

Rate this Entry

After a sell-off last week, and a negative initial reaction in the index futures on Sunday night to the terrorist attack in Paris over the weekend, stocks and oil bounced back strongly during Monday's trading session. The Dow ended the day up 238-points and oil rallied over 3%.

Volume wasn't too bad so there may be something behind the rally, but the charts still have some work to do before they look bullish. The positive outside reversal bars on the charts do look good for a possible turnaround.

Daily TSP Funds Return

The dollar rallied quite a bit holding back the I-fund some, and the large caps outpaced the small caps. Bonds were up slightly but they are running into some resistance.

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) bounced nicely off of the 200-day EMA and back above the 50-day EMA. That's just what the doctor ordered for the bulls as this chart was looking over a precipice if that 200-day gave out. It's possible that this was a test of the descending line that was broken in October, which formed the large pennant formation.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

A close up of November's actions shows one of the open gaps getting filled with a larger one still overhead at 207.66. There is also some descending resistance coming off the early monthly highs.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The Dow Completion Index (small caps / S-Fund) reversed higher gaining 0.91% but it is still trading below the key moving averages and remains in a bear market.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The Dow Transportation Index reversed higher after some sharp early losses on Monday. It's a good start but this chart is also in a bear market and below the key moving averages.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


This EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) filled a small open gap and there is another up near the 50-day EMA. The common theme for all of these charts, the smalls caps, Transports, and the I-fund, is that Monday was a big day but the troubles are still there.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The price of oil also opened lower but turned around, possibly triggering the positive reversal in the stock market. This is another seriously broken chart but it had gotten so oversold after falling for 8 straight days, that a relief rally was not a big surprise.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The AGG (bonds / F-fund) filled the open gap and stalled at the old support line, which could turn into resistance.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk



Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here on tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

Submit "Stocks and oil  rebound" to Digg Submit "Stocks and oil  rebound" to del.icio.us Submit "Stocks and oil  rebound" to StumbleUpon Submit "Stocks and oil  rebound" to Google

Comments


S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes