TSP Talk Blog

Stocks opened lower on Monday and except for a brief rally toward the end of the day, they couldn't really get any traction. The Dow ended the day down 180-points and we saw losses near 1% on many of the major indices.

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The interest rate hike dagger, the October jobs report, may have sunk in over the weekend. The 1.5% 3rd quarter GDP number may suggest otherwise, but the Fed is looking at employment, inflation, and to some extent China, which has been rallying, to determine if the economy is strong enough to start raising rates. Having painted themselves into a corner, they may be looking for reasons to finally get us out of the 0% rate.

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) has some issues with the double top and a possible rising wedge breakdown. Yesterday we talked about a possible dip to the 20 and / or 50-day EMA's, which is typical action after a big move up. Yesterday's decline was a start. Other than those EMA's there isn't a whole lot of support below. The 202 - 203 area looks like the best bet if the 20-day EMA doesn't hold.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Dow Completion Index (small caps / S-Fund) lost about 1% pulling back to the 20 and 50-day EMA's and the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders pattern. That is obviously a critical area of support.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Dow Transportation Index had a wild day, falling sharply early, but recovering all but 0.32% of the losses by the close. It nearly traded within the entire 8000 - 8300 range we talked about last week.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) is starting to look more suspect as it is below the 50-day EMA after failing at the 200-day EMA last month. Officially this is still in a bear market and in some possible trouble if it can't get some traction soon.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The recent strength in the dollar hasn't helped the I-fund, although yesterday it dipped slightly trying to fill the open gap created after the jobs report last Friday.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The AGG (bonds / F-fund) was down again yesterday but bonds may be a little oversold in the short-term and due for relief to fill an open gap.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


Per www.tsp.gov: Some financial markets will be closed on Wednesday, November 11th in observance of the Veterans Day holiday. The Thrift Savings Plan will also be closed. Transactions that would have been processed Wednesday night (November 11th) will be processed Thursday night (November 12th), at Thursday's closing share prices.

Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading. Happy Veteran's Day, and a big thank you to all of those who have served our country! We'll see you back here on Thursday!

Tom Crowley


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