TSP Talk Blog

Stocks were up early yesterday, but with the very important jobs report on deck on Friday morning, investors were tentative and there was a back and forth all day with little progress made by the bulls nor the bears.

Back in bull market territory we might anticipate the news to be good, but the indices are extended and investors may look for an excuse to take some profits. And at this point, with the Fed on the fence regarding interest rate hikes, I don't think anyone really know what they want to see from this report. Are we in a good news is bad news environment still, or are we past that? We should know with any kind of a surprise report on Friday. Estimates for the jobs report are looking for a gain of 181,000 jobs, and an unemployment rate of 5.1%. The Jobs Report Contest winners will be announced in the forum. Click here.

Daily TSP Funds Return More returns

We saw minor losses across the board in the TSP funds yesterday, but of course the G-fund still paid its minuscule pittance.

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) has come a long way since that late September low. As bullish as this has been, we're seeing a possible double top and overbought indicators so a little pullback seems reasonable, but if the jobs report gives the Fed and the market what they want to see, you never know... we could blast off to new highs.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Dow Completion Index (small caps / S-Fund) put in a decent positive reversal day but it continues to struggle to overcome the 200-day EMA. The 20-day EMA is crossing above the 50-day EMA, which is a bullish sign for the market in general, but it also tends to be a sign of being overbought and due for some relief in the short-term. One caveat is that the SPY did not pause much at all when the 20 moved above the 50-day EMA.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) seems to have found some sticky resistance in the 62 area.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The price of crude oil may be as big of a catalyst as interest rates lately. The charts aren't very similar but it seems to be coupled again with the direction of the stock market. It is also back below the 50-day EMA.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The AGG (bonds / F-fund) continued to slide after breaking down from the bear flag and rising trading channel. The 200-day EMA could be tested today as bonds tend to see volatility after a jobs report.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

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Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend!

Tom Crowley


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