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Wild swings as bulls / bears battle

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It was another peculiar day on Thursday with the futures swinging wildly overnight, and the cash indices continuing that action the day, but overall the bulls were able to hold back the bears who made another attempt to put a hurt on the market.


The futures were up strongly, about 1% in overnight trading. But by the open those gains were muted and the indices were up only modestly. The bears pushed and the Dow was down over 200-points just after noon ET. The bulls fought back and managed to take the indices back to the flat line and slightly higher in the case of the S&P 500. The Dow lost 13-points.

Daily TSP Funds Return

The I-fund led and the S-fund lagged while bonds were basically flat.

We get the September jobs report today (Friday) before the market opens, and estimates are looking for a gain of 201,000 jobs, and an unemployment rate of 5.1%. The Jobs Report Contest winner will be announced here.


The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) was up modestly on light volume but it was a wild day as the bulls and bears battled for position. I was impressed that the bulls were able to fight back after the bears took the Dow down over 200-points. The indices had every reason to give up and rollover, but they didn't. The market is oversold so perhaps the bears are biding their time. We'll see. This was day two of a relief rally in a bear market so let's not read too much more into it than that.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The Dow Completion Index (small caps / S-Fund) put in a low on Tuesday and has rebounded for a couple of days. It could be a bottom, but it does look like it could be a bear flag too.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) remains in a downtrend, in a bear market, and possibly in a bear flag (blue) so it has its work cut out for it to improve its technical picture.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is also showing a V-bottom / bear-flag, and obviously the outcomes of those two formations are a lot different so there's question marks all around.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The AGG (bonds / F-fund) rallied early but reversed down as stocks reversed up. It's sitting in the middle of its rising trading channel after breaking above the neckline of what looked like an inverted head and shoulders pattern. As I mentioned the other day, the H&S pattern gives an upside target near the upper resistance line, but the negative reversal yesterday throws a little bit of a wrench in that.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk



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Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend!

Tom Crowley

Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php

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BND (F Fund) (delayed)

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