TSP Talk Blog

After the "No" vote in Greece, the emotional Monday morning trading took over and we saw the stock indices gap open lower. As is typically the case, emotional gaps tend to start to close rather quickly, and after all was aid and done stocks ended the day with just modest losses. The Dow lost 47-points.

I am on the road this week and as I have whined about before, I have a difficult time adjusting from my 4 large monitor setup in my office to a 15" laptop with a mini-mouse. Plus my internet connection is sluggish making the whole process frustrating and slower. So, I apologize, but I am going to make these market commentaries brief this week.

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The I-fund took a pounding but, given that the U.S. markets recovered, we could see some of those losses given back today. Bond rallied up to resistance.

The SPY (S&P500 / C-fund) opened lower and nearly tested last week's lows before bouncing back to close with modest losses. Those "h" patterns aren't normally bullish, but they have held a few times this year. If there is a difference this time it is that it is happening at a lower low (compared to June's "h") after breaking below the rising support line.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) is also repeating the pattern we saw in April / May and this one has been able to hold above support so far. This is an important test for the small caps.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The EFA (EAFE index / I-fund) opened another large gap on the downside and managed to fill about half of it before Monday's close. Clearly the European markets will be most impacted by any fallout from the Greece debacle.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The dollar (UUP) opened higher but ran into some resistance and backed off some. It did close higher which added some pressure to the I-fund.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The AGG (bonds / F-fund) rallied up to the 50-day EMA but could not get any higher. As we mentioned yesterday, 109 is the level it needs to move above and that is about where it peaked yesterday.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

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Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


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