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Semi-deal, Referendum Sunday. Jobs report today

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Stocks rallied on Wednesday following a potential deal between Greece and the IMF, but there is still nothing official. The Dow rallied 138-points as investors now seem more concerned about missing out on a positive reaction from a deal, than being caught if there is no deal. History suggests a deal will be made, but expecting a deal may mean a little too much complacency out there.

Daily TSP Funds Return

The C and I-funds led the way, while bonds and the F-fund returned to their bearish ways.

There is a referendum in Greece on Sunday for the people to decide if they want to accept the terms from their creditors, so nothing has been solidified yet. Monday could be an interesting day for stocks and bonds.
The June Jobs report will be released this morning (Thursday). Estimates are looking for a gain of 230,000 jobs, and an unemployment rate of 5.4%. The Jobs Report Contest winner will be announced on is this page.

The SPY (S&P500 / C-fund) has rallied for a couple of days and we are either seeing a "V" bottom forming, or this rally will fail and we'll get another leg down. There's a little resistance at the current level and if we see a move back up to the 50-day EMA, that would bring a big test for the market. Technically, there are some cracks in this chart, but every crack this year has eventually led to new highs. We may have to wait until next week to get a better indication.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) is basically in the same situation, although it has not broken below its recent support line as the SPY has.



Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The
Dow Transportation Index continues to pile up the bearish technical formations. This is one of the differences between prior pullback in stocks this year, and the current one. In mid-May, this chart broke down technically, and is now considered in a bear market. It's not a good situation for the broader market when the market leader is in a bear market.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com
, analysis by TSP Talk


The
EFA (EAFE index / I-fund) rallied nicely despite the dollar being up sharply. There's a large open gap above and it did manage to crawl back above the 200-day EMA, but what happens on Monday after the Greek referendum?


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com
, analysis by TSP Talk


The UUP (dollar) rallied strongly yesterday but is nearly some resistance.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


Keeping an eye on China's Shanghai Index - after rallying over 5% on Tuesday, Chinese stocks fell 5% on Wednesday. China isn't in our I-fund but if it stays depressed the U.S. markets will begin to react.



Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


T
he AGG (bonds / F-fund) fell back down after testing some overhead resistance. Until we start seeing some of these resistance levels get taken out, this chart still looks bearish for bonds.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


From www.tsp.gov:
Some financial markets will be closed on Friday, July 3rd in observance of the Independence Day holiday. The Thrift Savings Plan will also be closed. Transactions that would have been processed Friday night (July 3rd) will be processed Monday night (July 6th), at Monday's closing share prices.

Also from TSP.gov:
OPM Cybersecurity Incident (Updated) — (June 11, 2015) We are aware of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) cybersecurity incident. It is important to note that TSP account numbers are not shared with OPM. To learn more about how the TSP protects your account information, as well as actions you can take, please visit our Security Center.

Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading! Have a great holiday weekend, and Happy Birthday, America!



Tom Crowley


Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

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DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

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BND (F Fund) (delayed)

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