TSP Talk Blog

Stocks opened higher on Thursday but quickly peaked and never revisited that early intraday high. The Dow lost 76-points, which isn't a major decline, but it was up 70-points at the open so the selling was fairly steady throughout the day.

Daily TSP Funds Return More returns

The uncertainty with situation in Greece seems to be keeping investors from committing, although the current pullback is not much different - so far - from any other we've had this spring.

The SPY (S&P500 / C-fund) lost a modest 0.32% on Thursday and is about to test the 50-day EMA but as you can see below it has moved above and below the 50-day EMA with ease during this recent rising trend going back to February. If there is a concern it was that the SPY failed to make a new high on its last attempt.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) fell through the first level of support (~1135) and temporarily fell below the second level (~1126) before closing just above it at 1127. The small caps have been outperforming so we'd look for any positive reversal to start here, if it does reverse.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Dow Transportation Index made a new closing low, and after breaking down from a head and shoulders pattern, failing at the neckline on a rebound, it now looks to have created a large bearish flag, and those don't usually end well. The question still remains, how long can the broader market hold up if the Transports continue to break down?


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

China's Shanghai Index lost another 3.5% on Thursday so it appears the two-day relief rally is over. If this is a bear flag and it breaks down, eventually the U.S. market will react.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The EFA (EAFE index / I-fund) was down slightly Thursday and filled the lower open gap (red) in the process. It could find support here but keep an eye on the headlines out of Greece / Europe. That is currently calling the shots.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The dollar is sitting on the top of an open gap at the moment but it has also created a bull flag. While we might expect the gap to get filled, there were a couple of other gap / bull flag formations and the prior two broke to the upside. One turned out to be a failed breakout, but the initial move was up from the flag.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The AGG (bonds / F-fund) was down again on Thursday and having broken down from a larger bear flag, it may have formed another smaller bear flag.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.