TSP Talk Blog

Stocks rallied on Thursday pushing the Dow to it's second highest closing price ever, behind the March 2nd close. The S&P 500 did make a new all-time closing high. The Nasdaq, small caps, and I-fund are still below their old highs but all posted gains getting them closer. The Transportation stocks are lagging badly and it is the red flag for this market.

Daily TSP Funds Return More returns

The I-fund was up but lagged the U.S. stock funds as it had to pay back a little of Wednesday's 0.86% gain. Bonds were up as well.

The weak dollar is one of the reasons given for the strength in the larger companies / funds, since they do more business overseas and a cheaper dollar helps sales overseas.

The new highs came with more of a whisper than an explosion as the SPY (S&P500 / C-fund) just nudged its way to a record close and as we said, the other indices did not. Prior attempts at new highs have been repeatedly knocked back so let's keep a close eye on that double dose of support around 211.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) is not near new highs yet since this last push higher in stocks seems to related to the weakening dollar which is helping the large caps and international stocks a lot more. Still, longer-term rising support has held and at some point investors may turn to the small caps for bargain hunting.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Dow Transportation Index continues to be the red flag in the market. It's not a deal breaker, but a bullish economically sensitive transportation index would be a great companion if this bull bull market is going to breakout to new highs and hold.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The EFA (EAFE index / I-fund) broke to the upside of the rising wedge for a second time and is now with about 2-points of making a new all-time high, which is a surprise considering how badly it lagged in 2014.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The AGG (bonds / F-fund) had an overdue rebound yesterday and may have found support at the 200-day EMA, but is that another bear flag forming?


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the Sentiment Survey Results and the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.