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Another failed breakout?

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Stocks opened higher on Monday morning, but could not hold onto those gains as the indices drifted lower throughout the day. The losses weren't extreme as the the Dow lost 42-points, but it was pretty broad selling with all of the major indices losing ground.

There is an FOMC Meeting on Wednesday and investors are always nervous before any talks about interest rates, but if you haven't noticed, Janet Yellen has been very accommodating to the market since she took over as Chairman.

Daily TSP Funds Return
The small caps lagged, while the dollar was down again helping the I-fund to a nice day. Plus, the U.S. indices were still up when the European markets close so there could be some payback today. Bonds posted a small loss.

Apple reported a strong earnings report after the close on Monday, and while there was some initial volatility, the Nasdaq futures didn't really respond all that much.

From our friends at sentimenTrader.com...



The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) posted a negative outside reversal day and a possible failed breakout as it closed below the breakout line on Monday. Both are eye openers, but perhaps just an overreaction before Apple reported its earnings and the Fed's FOMC meeting on Wednesday.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) cracked below its short-term rising support line, but it remains above the 50-day EMA. The 20-day EMA was broken, but that has been happening often.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com
, analysis by TSP Talk


The
Nasdaq made another new all-time high at the open but it pulled back and did fill in that open gap created on Friday. Volume was a little high, and that's not something you really want to see on a negative reversal day.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com
, analysis by TSP Talk


The
Dow Transportation Index tacked onto Friday's pullback and is now resting on the 20-day EMA. Trucking stocks were negatively impacted by a new strike on the west coast. I don't like that it has fallen below the 50-day EMA, but its recent uptrend is still intact.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The
EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) gapped to the upside with big gains in some European markets and a weaker dollar. The breakout is holding for a second day. That open gap will likely get filled when the overseas markets react to the negative afternoon in US. stocks, but maybe Apple's big earnings report will help.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The
dollar was down and closed below the 50-day EMA for a second straight day. The early April low is about to be tested and if it fails, the short-term downtrend may be upgraded to an intermediate-term downtrend, which would benefit the I-fund the most.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The AGG (bonds / F-fund) was up slightly but created a positive reversal day as investors looked for a little safety during Monday's modest selling in stocks.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com
, analysis by TSP Talk



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ead more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the Sentiment Survey Results and the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley



Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php

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BND (F Fund) (delayed)

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