TSP Talk Blog

Stocks were mixed yesterday with Dow losing 85-points while the S&P 500 lost just 3, the Nasdaq gained 20, and small caps were relatively flat. After Monday's action - a rally recapturing a chunk of Friday's losses, the indices gapped up with some decent gains, but those gaps were filled rather quickly producing a possible negative reversal day. The bears had an opportunity to do some damage but they didn't really capitalize as the indices did hold on rather well after the reversal.

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The I-fund led the way and bonds were off slightly.

The S&P 500 (C-fund) raced up toward the resistance line and backed off again. It did gap up at the open so filling the gap quickly helps us from having to worry about it getting filled later. SPY closed down 3 of the last 4 days yet it is still less than 1% from a new high.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) was flat and you can see the negative reversal on the candlestick chart more clearly. It did manage to hold onto Monday's gains.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Dow Transportation Index was up modestly but it is still dealing with the 50-day EMA and the top of a large bear flag. As I said yesterday, it's do or die time here.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Nasdaq gapped up above resistance on Tuesday and led the way with a 0.39% gain yesterday. It did fall back from the opening highs like the other indices, but it did not fill its open gap yet. That's an area to watch if it opens lower today. Other than that, the action looks pretty good but we do need to see a breakout soon.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) gapped higher on Tuesday and the gap remains open. However the gap up also filled the prior open gap (purple). And we don't want to forget about the other open gaps below, and that rising wedge may be telling us those gaps could be revisited at some point this spring / summer.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) was down and it did fall below - and close below, the short-term support line. We'll see if that has any meaning as the week goes on.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


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Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


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