TSP Talk Blog

Except for a midday spike higher, stocks spent most of the day on Thursday moving sideways to slightly lower. The Dow lost 7-points and the other indices were also basically flat to lower.

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The I-fund was down again but I have to admit I'm a little confused by that. The dollar was down and the EAFE was up 0.46% on the day. If we don't see some positive fair value with Friday's price we may wonder start asking questions to the TSP - although I am not sure what was going on earlier in the week in regards to fair value. Bonds were up.

The S&P 500 (C-fund) hit the overhead resistance again on Thursday, and again backed down. As I mentioned yesterday, triple tops don't normally get the pullback that we see at double tops, but it's not always a clean breakout. A small open gap did get filled (or just about filled) which provided some support and buyers stepped up, but that overhead resistance was still a factor.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The weekly chart has put some distance between itself and the support line. Remember how nervous we were when it was hitting that support line? It's usually a great buying opportunity, but it doesn't feel like it at the time. Now the S&P is about half-way between the rising support and resistance lines. Does this look like a bull market to anyone? It should.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) was down slightly but stayed above the recent breakout level. It's within a point of its all-time closing high (made on Wednesday) so its hard to consider the 0.09% loss on Thursday as bearish.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Dow Transportation Index had that one big intraday spike down on Tuesday, but closed near the highs that day. Take that day bar away and it looks like a bull flag.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) was up modestly and continues to move slowly, but steadily higher since the late March pullback. The narrow trend lines might be indicating a bearish rising wedge is in play, so getting over 67 would be a bullish move. Why the I-fund was down on Thursday, I don't know


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The dollar's weakness this week has helped the international stocks and the next test of the 50-day EMA is upon it. It it finds support, the I-fund may feel some pressure. It it breaks below the 50-day EMA, it will be a breeze at the back of the I-fund.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) filled an open gap on Thursday and closed down slightly, although the F-fund was given a small gain. There's overhead resistance and it's interesting that the S&P 500 and the AGG are in the same situation, flirting with new multi-month highs. When bond prices (F-fund) go up, bond yields go down, but why can't the 10-year yield get back over 2%? It's acting like the economy is weakening.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


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Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary

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