TSP Talk Blog

Stocks were down sharply on Tuesday as the bulls handed over control to the bears, at least for a day, after the big rally on Monday. The Dow lost 200 of the 266-points it gained on Monday. The action was not great, obviously, but there were gaps that needed filled and we'll just have to see if that's all it was.

Daily TSP Funds Return More returns

Small caps kept the damage to a minimum losing just 0.40%, while the I-fund lagged again as the dollar continued its rebound. Bonds (F-fund) were up.

Here are the final monthly numbers for March:



As I write this on Tuesday night, the futures are tanking sharply. I hadn't even seen the reason although I see "Greece" on the TV screen with the sound down. Whether this rolls into Wednesday's open remains to be seen. Sometimes these washouts happen in overnight trading and don't impact the day's trading. We'll see. The S&P 500 futures are testing last week's lows right now. I wish this was an April Fool's joke, but no.

The stock market is closed on Friday but the Jobs Report is still scheduled to be released as usual. The estimates are looking for a gain of about 250,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 5.5%.

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) nearly filled the open gap created on Monday morning, and if the futures remain red, it will not only fill that gap, but we're likely to get a new overhead gap - but it's too early to say.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) held up fairly well losing just 0.40% Tuesday, but everything I say has an asterisk with the S&P 500 futures down 1% as I write this. The Russell 2000 futures are down 0.85%.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) filled its open gap but may be testing last week's lows if the futures remain solidly red.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) is full of gaps with one gap getting filled (blue) by yesterday's downside gap. It remains above the rising support line, but again the futures may be indicating a breakdown. A lot can happen between now (9:15 PM ET) and the opening bells.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The historical performance surrounding Easter weekend is quite positive with just one day showing a negative average return from 4 days prior to Good Friday, until 4-days after, and that would be next Monday.


Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) was up as investors moved from stocks to bonds. This chart still looks bearish unless it can move above the bear flag.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The Jobs Report Contest is open in the forum. Click here for more information.

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Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary

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