Trying to bottom...
by
, 03-30-2015 at 02:14 AM (1275 Views)
Stocks traded in a fairly tight range on Friday with the bulls winning the battle as the Dow gained 34-points. It wasn't exactly a capitulation from the bears, but the S&P 500 was able to close well above the Thursday lows for a 2nd straight day. The bulls do have some more work to do, but it looks like they haven't given up quite yet. It's getting close to do or die.
The S-fund led the way on Friday and the I-fund lagged, while the F-fund had a big day but bonds posted a negative reversal day.
Daily TSP Funds Return
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) posted a small gain on Friday after Thursday's semi-reversal day. The reason it wasn't a full positive reversal day was because it closed almost in the middle of Thursday's high and low price. What the bulls are looking for now is to see the 50-day EMA get taken out, rather than act as resistance on any further upside action.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The weekly chart of the S&P 500 shows yet another test of the long-term rising support line. So far it has been successful, but the longer it hangs around this area, the more vulnerable the index becomes. I think we dodged a bullet in January when the S&P 500 tested that support for about 5-weeks in a row - and held.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) looks a little more "bottomy" but it needs to move higher quickly or it risks creating a bear flag - which tend to breakdown. Recapturing the 20-day EMA would be a bullish sign.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Transportation Index, what we've counted on as the market leader for years, has been lagging badly lately. We did see a decent positive reversal day on Thursday and some positive follow-through on Friday, and it wasn't a moment too soon as it was testing the prior lows and the 200-day EMA.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) was up on Friday despite the TSP getting some negative numbers in the I-fund. We should see the I-fund recoup that difference this week. The open gap below (blue) was nearly filled and now it is trying to fill the newly created overhead gap near 65.50.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The April seasonality chart shows a positive bias for the first several days of the month.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) was up on Friday but the action wasn't very bullish after breaking below the rising trading channel and posting a negative reversal day on Friday.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
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Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
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