TSP Talk Blog

Happy St. Patrick's Day!

If you like a good come-back story, this one started on Friday - despite the 145-point decline - when the bulls finally started to do some buying in late afternoon trading when the Dow was down about 300-points. The come-back was completed on Monday as the Dow rocketed to a 228-point gain completely erasing last week's losses. The difference between a ball game and the market is, the game doesn't end for the market. It continues onto the next day. Only our IFT's will lock in those gains or losses so play them carefully.

Daily TSP Funds Return More returns

Despite the price of oil falling again, the large caps led the way while the I-fund and S-fund gained just under 1%. Bonds picked up 0.04%.

The Fed's FOMC meeting will begin today with the policy statement announced on Wednesday afternoon. Again the key thing everyone will be looking for is how they address interest rates and whether they continue to use the word "patient." The big jobs report a couple of weeks ago left doubts.

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) rallied back above the 20-day and 50-day EMA and is now only about 1.5% away from new all-time highs. Some of the prior rallies off of recent lows did not last very long, and that's a concern, but we take this a day and a week at a time and right now the ball is back in the bulls' court and it's the bears turn to try to take it back.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) is a stone's throw away from new highs, and if you have been able to time these back and forth swings this year, you would be doing very well. And looking at our AutoTracker leaders, some of you have done just that having returns of over 8% or 9% in less than 3 months while the market has been relatively flat.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Dow Transportation Index had a big day gaining 1.7% on Monday and nearing new highs. But the 9200-9300 has been a tough nut to crack this year. If there's a noticeable difference this time it's that the pullback did not come all the way down the the lower support line like the prior ones.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) gained over 1% yesterday and it got a break from the dollar which was finally down on Monday. It is back above the 50 and 200-day EMA, and the 50-day EMA looks to be ready to cross back above the 200-day EMA. If that gets done it will officially (in my book) lose the bear market label. Yesterday's rally opened up a small new gap, but other than that, all of the other gaps have been filled since the January lows.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) is hopping above and below some key support / resistance lines making it tough to make a call on its desired direction. With the Fed's interest rate decision coming up tomorrow, we should get our answer.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


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Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary

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