TSP Talk Blog

The day started out with some promise as the big earnings reports from Apple and Yahoo saw the pre-market futures sharply higher and for the most part, although choppy, we saw some decent gains in the first few hours of trading. But after the Fed policy statement was announced, investors saw it as a reason to take profits, and then to outright sell. The Dow ended the day down 196-points, erasing an early morning gain of nearly 100-points.

Daily TSP Funds Return More returns

The losses were fairly equal across the board in the TSP stock funds while bonds and the F-fund had a big day while yields fell sharply.

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) is still running the risk of creating a rounded top. We're in a range from about 197 to 209 and we'll just have to see which end breaks first. Right now the bears have the ball and they will try to take out the downside of the range, after the bulls failed to get it through the topside overhead resistance.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) had a semi-breakout earlier this week but as of now it's another failed breakout. Again, the bears are in control. The Wilshire remains above the 50-day EMA so it does have that going for it.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

I posted the QQQ (Nasdaq 100) on Wednesday and I wanted to follow-up on the overhead gap trying hard to get filled before the Fed sent investors running and the gap remains partially open.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) backed off from the overhead resistance but it is still trying to hold above the 50-day EMA. This is where the bear market will try to sink its teeth into this chart. Bear markets tend to swat rallies back down at the 200-day EMA so the I-fund, which has had a nice run this month, is at a critical point.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The dollar bounced back after the 1-day decline and yesterday strength was enough to fill the open gap. The questions is, will the top of the gap now act as resistance?


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) is making a classic breakout above a bull flag. That's good news for the F-fund for now.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the Sentiment Survey Results and the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.