View RSS Feed

TSP Talk Blog

Jobs report Friday

Rate this Entry

Stocks slipped after Thursday's open, but it didn't take long for the bulls to step up and buy the intraday dip. The Dow added another 70-points, while small caps led, and international stocks lagged.

Daily TSP Funds Return

I didn't catch why the small caps, which were struggling early, accelerated into the close.



The October jobs report comes out today (Friday) and consensus estimates are looking for a gain of about 235,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 5.9%. The jobs report contest winner will be announced after the report is released.


The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) made a new all time high on Thursday and while the gains are not explosive like we saw in the second half of October, they are enough to frustrate the bears who have been expecting some kind of an oversold pullback, but nothing noticeable yet. The big elephant in the room is the inverted head and shoulders pattern that may or may not produce pullback here at the neckline.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The R
ussell 2000 is either in a bull flag, which would break upward, or forming a peak. Right now it looks more like a bull flag, but can it keep going higher without taking a little pullback breather first?


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com
, analysis by TSP Talk


The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) was down yesterday and continues to trade below some key resistance.



Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com
, analysis by TSP Talk


The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey (this is not the TSP Talk Survey) came in at 53% bulls, and 15% bears. the 15% bears is extremely low and it pushed the bulls to bears ratio to 3.5 to 1, which is very high. It's the highest ratio in nearly 4 years, but surprisingly the market didn't react overly negative in prior reading this high - the last being in late 2010.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com
, analysis by TSP Talk


The AGG (bonds/ (F-fund) is slowly declining and now testing that support line and 50-day EMA.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com
, analysis by TSP Talk

I will be out of town for several days so my schedule may be off a little next week, and my commentaries may be brief, but everything should get posted - premiums, share prices, AutoTracker, etc. Your patience will be appreciated.


Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the Sentiment Survey Results and the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!

Tom Crowley



Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

Submit "Jobs report Friday" to Digg Submit "Jobs report Friday" to del.icio.us Submit "Jobs report Friday" to StumbleUpon Submit "Jobs report Friday" to Google

Comments


S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes