TSP Talk Blog

It was a down week for stocks and the TSP funds, including bonds (F-fund) as bond yields continued to spike last week. The concern on Wall Street seems to be the winding down of quantitative easing, which will end in October. There is also an important Fed meeting this coming week and investors are all ears as the Fed discusses the future of interest rates.



Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending September 12:




The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) has been pulling back and testing the July breakout level of about about 199, and the 20-day EMA. So far the action has done little to affect the technical picture, but any more down side and the important 50-day EMA will be in the picture and this recent "dip" would turn from a consolidation into a pullback.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) is testing that 50-day EMA as small caps continue to struggle behind the larger cap indices. There was no breakout to new highs like we saw in the S&P, and it did not even reach the July highs and back down, as we saw in the Dow. The 50-day EMA will be an important line in the sand this coming week.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The EFA (I-fund) has been struggling and unable to recapture the 50-day EMA (blue line). Instead it has resumed the descending trend from the July peaks and isn't far from testing the August lows. The strength in the U.S. dollar has not helped as we are seeing currencies in Europe continue to slide in value as the president of the European Central Bank has announced that the bank plans to initiate a form of quantitative easing, and a cut in interest rates.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) slid precipitously as bond yields finally started to rise. In two weeks we saw two-months of gains disappear in the price of bond. (When bond prices go down, bond yields go up.) It appears that investors decided, right after Labor Day Weekend, that bonds were overvalued.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


Good luck and thanks for reading! We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at TSP Talk Market Commentary. If you need some help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our premium services can help.

Tom Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
Facebook | Twitter


The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or are commendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.