TSP Talk Blog

U.S. stocks were up every day last week, and rose sharply after the FOMC policy statement was announced on Wednesday afternoon. Inflation has become a concern and we saw the dollar weaken and gold prices spike toward the end of the week.




It was a healthy week for the TSP funds with all closing positive, and small caps continuing to leading the way in June.

Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending June 20:




The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) had consolidated between March and the end of May and the breakout has been a powerful one. The upside target of the inverted head and shoulders pattern is in this current area (about 195). There is a new rising trading channel (thin red lines) that will be the immediate test, and as long as the 193-195 area holds this will be OK, but if that area fails there are a lot of downside targets just waiting to be revisited.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

After a slow start in 2014, the small caps have been leading the way for weeks but now the Wilshire 4500 has to deal with a pretty strong dose of resistance. It did peak its head above that resistance on Friday, but it was an option expiration Friday and that may have had something to do with the index holding. At this point I'd expect a strong move one way or the other. Either a powerful breakout, or a meaning full pullback, that wouldn't be all that unhealthy after the big run since the lows in May.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk


Bonds broke below their rising support line earlier this month, but they have been holding up and consolidating well since. We'll want to watch the 50-day EMA, and see which way this consolidation box breaks. They could go either way and it may depend on what stocks do. Inflation would be bearish for bonds as interest rates would likely rise.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Good luck andthanks for reading! We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at TSP Talk Market Commentary.If you need some help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our premium services can help.

Tom Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-UpsArchive
Facebook | Twitter


The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or are commendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.