TSP Talk Blog

Estimates: +210,000 with unemployment rate of 6.6%

Actual: +288,000 with unemployment rate of 6.3%


It's a little misleading and the market isn't soaring on the data. The +288,000 is impressive plus there were solid upward revisions in Feb. and March, but 806,000 people left the work force (no longer part of the unemployment # equation) - the most ever since they started keeping track of that, and that accounts for the 6.3% unemployment rate. And when 800K leave the workforce, of course some have to be replaced.

The reason the market might like this will be because of the +288K, but also because investors may think the Fed knows this is not a great report and will keep rates low. But the lack of a big rally means this is not as good as it appears.