TSP Talk Blog

Although off to a rocky start, stocks had a pretty good week last week. They opened sharply lower on Monday as the situation in Crimea, Ukraine escalated, but by Tuesday investors put that behind them and we ended the week with a decent jobs report. The U.S. indices ended the week with gains near 1% while the International Fund struggled a bit, as did bonds.




Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns through Friday, March 7...




After Monday's sell-off broke the short-term rising trading channel (black), the S&P 500 (SPY / C-fund) gapped up on Tuesday and found itself back in the channel. That open gap is a concern and very likely a target for the next pullback, which also lines up with the January high (blue line) so the 185 area could also be a strong area of support if tested.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk


This is a weekly chart of the Russell 2000 (small cap index) where each bar represents the range of one week's action. You can see that it has been in a tight rising trading channel since late 2012, but last week it hit the top of that channel so it could be running into resistance. The good news is, the resistance is rising so there is room for it to move up, but the path of least resistance over the next few weeks may be down.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk


As stocks rallied, bonds (F-fund) pulled back from their test of new 2014 highs. The situation in Crimea on Monday sent the 7 to 10 year bond ETF to new highs, but since then investors have been opting for "risk on" investing and moved from bonds to stocks.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk


With the jobs report behind us and earnings season completed, the market could run out of positive catalysts this month. The first two weeks in March have a much more bullish season bias than the last two weeks so perhaps the rally may start to wind down after this coming week?

Good luck, and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at TSP Talk Market Commentary.

Tom Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or are commendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.