TSP Talk Blog
Stocks rise into jobs report
by , 03-06-2014 at 07:47 PM (1731 Views)
Update: The job market added 175,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate rose to 6.7% from 6.6%. Estimates were looking for +163,000 and 6.6% respectively.
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Stocks were mixed again on Thursday as the Dow gained 62-points, the Nasdaq was down, and small caps and the S&P 500 were basically flat. The Transports had a big day and, with the help of a falling dollar, the I-fund led the TSP funds.
Once again I am out of town on equipment that does not agree with me so I will make this a little brief. I apologize to the new subscribers who may not have seen a full report yet, but I'll be back on my normal schedule next week (Monday or possibly Tuesday.)
Daily TSP Funds Return
The SPY (S&P 500) remained in positive territory all day on Thursday but struggled to hang onto the early highs. The index remains in a tight rising trading channel but a little bigger picture has it in a rising wedge pattern, which may eventually be trouble. The open gap is sitting on the support from the rising wedge and gaps are fairly rare on the S&P, and it seems like an obvious downside target for the short term.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Transportation Index had a very nice day on Thursday after officially filling its open gap on Wednesday. It ran into resistance at the January highs, but if other major indices like the S&P, the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 are any indication, the Transports should not have too much trouble breaking through.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The dollar gapped down on Thursday and fell below that support line that we have been watching. That helped the I-fund to a +0.8% gain on Thursday. The short-term trend is down keeping the I-fund in play if you are in the stock funds.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Bonds were down as they continue to fall back from their double top. This could be a consolidation before another move higher, and if that's the case we should see the stock market pullback. The key is if these charts can make higher highs. If so, the stock market will not like it.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The yields are hitting resistance at the 50-day EMA again and if that holds bond prices and the F-fund would rise, so this is a key spot for bonds.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The February jobs report will be today (Friday). Estimates are looking for somewhere near +163,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 6.6%.
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Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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