TSP Talk Blog

08/28/13

Stocks fell yesterday and the buyers didn't show up to buy this dip. They seem to be waiting on some clarity regarding the mess in Syria, which is getting quite serious, and it's a tricky situation with an uncertain approach at this time. The Dow lost 170-points, closing near the lows.

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The S&P 500 (SPY) opened below the 50-day EMA and headed south all day. Volume was higher today than it had been, but this is still a slow week for stocks historically with many folks on Wall Street taking the week off.

The bottom of the new short-term descending trading channel held for now, but clearly the overhead resistance and the new trend may be stronger than many thought. Either that or it's one of the pre / post holiday fake-outs. I'll talk more about that on TSP Talk Plus.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

After last Thursday's big rally on light volume, the Transportation Index was pummeled yesterday giving back all of those gains. There's a new open gap above and there is a clear head and shoulders pattern formed with the neckline near 112. A downside target, should the H&S breakdown, would be near 106 - 108, but we could get a test of the head first which would fill that gap. Could go either way in the short-term but this is a concern since this is the leader.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Here is the seasonality chart for the days surrounding Labor Day weekend. Looks like today (Wednesday) and Friday have pretty good positive biases, but outside of that there's not much to get excited about.


Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk

And here is the September seasonality chart - the worst month of the year historically.


Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk

In today's TSP Talk Plus report we'll go over some indicators that are concerning. We'll look at a few other charts and also talk about the holiday reversal situation. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary

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