TSP Talk Blog

07/31/13

Stocks were mixed yesterday as the Dow and S&P 500 bounced above and below the break-even mark a couple of times. The Dow and S&P ended on the opposite sides of even mark as the Dow lost a point, and the S&P was up a fraction, while the Nasdaq, small caps, and the I-fund saw modest gains.

Daily TSP Funds Return G-Fund: +0.0057% F-fund: -0.06% C-fund: +0.04% S-fund: +0.38% I-fund: +0.25% More returns

I saw an interesting interview on CNBC yesterday with Mark Grant - the managing director at Southwest Securities. Rick Santali told Mark that he just saw a headline saying Peugot [French company] will have the French government guarantee $7 billion, 9.2 billion Euros of its bonds. He asks Mark, "Does it ever end?"

Mark's response, "The German election is September 22nd. I can virtually assure you for the next six weeks between now and then, whatever amount of money it takes, whatever France has to do to guarantee a corporation, anything, everything, the world will be quiet, and then after that, which I view as a drop dead date, everything is going to change."

Click here to watch the full 3 minute interview. I found it very interesting.

So I'll keep September 22 on my radar, and we'll see if the "world will be quiet" until then, turns out to be true, and if things change afterward. That will be on us before we know it. Can you believe that July is over already?

The S&P 500 looks to be consolidating quite nicely; stubbornly holding above that May high support line. There's lots of data coming out today including the FOMC meeting so that could shake things up one way or another.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) have both created nice looking cup formations in the second half of July, and those tend to be bullish and break upward. Yesterday there was a move to a new 52-week high on the QQQ, but it backed off and closed as a false breakout, so there is also the possibility of a pullback from a double top here. The open gap still has my attention despite it staying open for longer than I would have expected.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The recent sideways consolidation in the indices has had the effect of bringing the NYSE overbought / oversold indicator on the south side of the neutral line. It's certainly not oversold, but it moved from near extreme overbought to neutral without any real damage done to stocks.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The 10-day moving average of the smart money OEX put / call ratio has started to move into the extreme bearish territory (which tends to be bearish for stocks), while the CBOE dumb money put / call ratio is getting close to an extreme bullish reading (which also tends to be bearish.) That is a bit of a warning sign, although in 2013 it hasn't always meant all that much.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Today we get Chicago PMI, the 2nd quarter GDP number, plus the FOMC meeting and the Fed's decision on interest rates and policy. On Friday we get the July jobs report and estimates are currently looking for a gain of 175,000 and an unemployment rate of 7.5%. Forum members can get in on the monthly Jobs Report Contest by going to: Jobs Reports & Contests

Check in tomorrow for an announcement about the premium services.

Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley

Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary

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