TSP Talk Blog

05/14/13

It was a very dull day of trading on Monday with the most excitement coming in early morning trading when we saw some stiff losses and buyers stepped up and kept the indices near the break-even area most of the day. The Dow lost 27-points while the S&P and Nasdaq were flat.

Daily TSP Funds Return G-Fund: +0.0113% F-fund: -0.06% C-fund: +0.01% S-fund: -0.13% I-fund: +0.33% More returns

The I-fund played a little catch-up yesterday with its 0.33% gain. If you recall there was a strong close in the U.S. stock indices on Friday and this was the I-fund recouping that.

The S&P 500 is... say it with me... hitting overhead resistance. Yes, we're a broken record as the resilience in the stock market has been remarkable all year, and we're running out of ways to say it.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Bond yields moved higher again yesterday as bond prices and the F-fund slipped again. This chart of the yield on the 10-year T-note shows just how quickly the yield has moved up over the last week and a half, which of course has the opposite effect on bond prices.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

This sharp rally in the bond yield while stocks gained over 2% near a 52-year high sets up an interesting situation.


Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk

While stocks did poorly one month out - closing positive only 29% of the time, a year later the S&P 500 was up every time with an average gain over 10%. It looks like the weak stretch is 2 weeks to 3 months after this situation arises.

A dull day leads to boring commentary. That's probably a good thing for the bulls as they say, don't short (bet against) a dull market.

Thanks for reading! We'll see you here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary

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