TSP Talk Blog

1/22/13

Stocks were flat to modestly higher on Friday as the indices remain buoyant and climb the "wall of worry". The Dow gained 54-points on the day while the S&P 500 made another multi-year closing high.

Daily TSP Funds Return G-Fund: 0.0036% F-fund: 0.11% C-fund: 0.34% S-fund: 0.24% I-fund: -0.60% More returns

The S&P 500 broke out to new highs last week, and the old resistance line may try to act as support now, on any pullback. The trends are up whether you look at the short-term, intermediate-term, or long-term charts, and with that kind of momentum it would seem we should not fight it until the charts give us a reason to.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The start of 2013 continues to remind me of the start to 1987, the last time we began a new year after a capital gains rate increase - because the selling was likely overdone in December to lock in the lower capital gains rates.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

I can only assume the indicators were stretched to the overbought / overly bullish side during that early 1987 rally, but when the charts and the indicators are in conflict, go with the chart formations. When support finally breaks, we should have plenty of time to do some selling - assuming we don't see a flash-crash.

As I mentioned a couple of weeks ago, not only shouldn't we bet against a dull market, but it will make for some very boring market commentary. A slow grind higher is a good way to increase your account balances, but writing about it is a tough way to make a living.

Maybe I will try to come up with some good knock-knock jokes while we wait for something exciting to happen.

Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary

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