TSP Talk Blog

11/30/12

Stocks were higher during most of the trading day yesterday, with the exception of a quick, news driven spike lower just before noon. The Dow ended the day up 37-points, while the broader indices saw larger percentage gains.

Daily TSP Funds Return G-Fund: 0.0036% F-fund: -0.01% C-fund: 0.44% S-fund: 0.93% I-fund: 1.33% More returns

John Boehner spoke publically yesterday just before noon and declared that the fiscal cliff negotiations were not progressing as well as we've been led to believe, and just like that the morning gains evaporated. But spooked investors quickly shook off that implication and went on with their buying.

The S&P 500 moved solidly above the 50-day EMA and it looks like it is getting healthier. It has not made a higher high yet. That will happen if it can get above the early November peak.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

I like to see a breakout hold for 3 to 5 days before I'm totally convinced, but now that it has held above its descending trend line for 5 days, it is looking better for the 50-day EMA beakout. But with today's headline driven market, we should probably expect volatility and shy away from getting either too bullish, or too bearish.

Like in September and October, the 1425-1340 area on the S&P 500 chart could be the key. It seemed to act as support while trading above that area, and as resistance while below.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The small caps of the Russell 2000 gapped open higher yesterday and is now solidly above its descending trend line. I see 3 large gaps on this chart and since gaps almost always get filled, we could be looking at some wild swings to accomplish that this time.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The dollar ETF UUP broke down from its bear flag yesterday - something a bear flag is supposed to do.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

A weakening dollar should help stocks, but as we said above, it's a headline driven market and we're hanging on every word.

It looks like it is getting better out there, but I wouldn't get too comfortable. Seasonality gets very strong around week three in December, but before that it's not much of an edge.


Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com


Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary

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