TSP Talk Blog

11/06/12

Volume way very light in pre-Election day trading yesterday, and I'd expect more of the same today. The Dow turned a mostly negative day into some modest gains as it picked up 19-points on the day.

Daily TSP Funds Return G-Fund: 0.0114% F-fund: 0.15% C-fund: 0.23% S-fund: 0.54% I-fund: -0.68% More returns

The S&P 500 saw a bit of a positive reversal day but after the big rally and sell-off, it finds itself back in the 1400 - 1420 range, and within a bear flag that looks to be still in play. It is also having trouble getting back over the 20 and 50-day EMAs, as well as the horizontal resistance line (blue). I'm not sure I like the looks of this but I guess the election could turn things around.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Taking a look at a longer-term view of the important Nasdaq 100 index shows that it is in a short-term downtrend, as we've talked about, but the longer-term rising bull market support line (red) may have also been broken.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The battle here now will be between that overhead rising support-turned-resistance, and the 200-day EMA which has held so far.

I would show you some of the indicators, which are somewhat mixed, but the charts look bad and that is the main concern. The election may be the best indicator. Let's just hope we have a winner declared by Wednesday morning.

The positive here is the election is a big deal and weak technical analysis, which normally tells the story, may be at the mercy of the election, at least in the short-term. Emotions are high and uncertainty will hopefully turn to certainty. I'm cutting it here and just letting things play out. I have no idea what today's results will bring.

Vote!

Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


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