TSP Talk Blog

9/19/12

Stocks were mixed yesterday as the Dow gained 11-points while the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and small caps closed flat to modestly lower.

Daily TSP Funds Return G-Fund: 0.0036% F-fund: 0.06% C-fund: -0.13% S-fund: -0.37% I-fund: -0.66% More returns

I don't have too much to add today, to yesterday's commentary regarding heading to the weaker half of the weakest month of the year. One thing I didn't mention is that this is an election year and September isn't quite as bad during election years as it is non-election years.

The S&P 500 has started a small bull flag, with some support below in the form of that rising trading channel.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

In a bull market, buying a 2 to 3 day dip usually works and a bull flag would be a good formation to buy, but the market leading Dow Transportation index pulled back sharply ovee the last 2 days - not creating a bull flag, so that could be a tell for what will happen in the S&P 500.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Transports remain in that 4950 - 5250 range and if the 200-day EMA doesn't hold up, the bottom of that range will be close at hand.

That's about it for today. We've been expecting some kind of pullback but in a strong bull market we shouldn't expect too much downside. But if the Transports continue to fall, we may have to be on the lookout for something more serious.

Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary


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